王振国,罗华峰,郑文哲,倪恬,侯慧,林湘宁,潘娅英
WANG Zhenguo,LUO Huafeng,ZHENG Wenzhe,NI Tian,HOU Hui,LIN Xiangning,PAN Yaying

• 1:国网浙江省电力有限公司电力科学研究院
• 2:武汉理工大学自动化学院
• 3:华中科技大学电气与电子工程学院
• 4:浙江省气象服务中心

摘要(Abstract)：

传统电力系统灵活性资源规划多聚焦于常规天气场景，难以应对极端天气频发与高比例可再生能源接入带来的挑战。为此，提出一种极端天气下灵活性资源规划方法。首先，将极端天气划分为环境型与灾害型两类，并针对其特性提出退役火电机组转型备用机组、移动储能车提供应急供电等差异化技术方案。其次，构建源-荷-储多种灵活性资源在各类天气下的协同优化调节模型，并采用全年不平衡风险系数等五项指标评估系统灵活性。进而，以投资与运行成本最小为目标建立优化模型，考虑投资与运行约束条件，通过线性化处理简化求解过程。最后，基于湖北省全年电力与气象数据进行算例分析，结果表明：所提方法在极端天气下引入灵活性资源可使系统不平衡风险系数降低，削减系统总成本，有效提升了新型电力系统的灵活性与经济性。
Existing power system flexibility resource planning primarily focuses on normal weather scenarios, proving inadequate to address challenges posed by frequent extreme weather events and high-penetration renewable energy integration. To address this challenge, this paper proposes a novel flexibility resource planning method for extreme weather conditions. First, extreme weather is categorized into environmental-type and disaster-type events, with tailored solutions such as repurposing retired thermal units as standby generators and deploying mobile energy storage vehicles for emergency power supply. Second, a coordinated optimization model for generation, load, and storage flexibility resources under different weather conditions is developed. System flexibility is evaluated using five metrics including annual imbalance risk coefficient. Third, an optimization model is developed to minimize investment and operational costs, with their constraints incorporated, and the solution process is simplified by linearization. Case study based on Hubei Province's power and meteorological data shows that the proposed method, by introducing flexibility resources under extreme weather conditions, reduces system imbalance risk coefficient and decreases total system costs, thereby enhancing flexibility and economic efficiency of modern power systems.

关键词(KeyWords)： 电力系统规划;极端天气;灵活性;源网荷储;供需平衡
power system planning;extreme weather;flexibility;generation-grid-load-storage;supply-demand balance

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金（U22B20106）;; 浙江省自然科学基金（LZJMY25D050006）;; 国网浙江省电力有限公司科技项目（B311DS24001A）

作者(Author): 王振国,罗华峰,郑文哲,倪恬,侯慧,林湘宁,潘娅英
WANG Zhenguo,LUO Huafeng,ZHENG Wenzhe,NI Tian,HOU Hui,LIN Xiangning,PAN Yaying

DOI: 10.19585/j.zjdl.202604002

参考文献(References)：

• [1]朱超，王蕾，姚宇，等.新型电力系统背景下城市供电风险的传导推演与阻断方法[J].浙江电力，2022,41(7):49-56.ZHU Chao,WANG Lei,YAO Yu,et al.Deduction of urban power supply risk transmission and blocking method in the context of the new power system[J].Zhejiang Electric Power,2022,41(7):49-56.
• [2]张礼浩，刘翔宇，顾雪平，等.新型电力系统频率安全稳定研究综述及展望[J].浙江电力，2024,43(10):12-26.ZHANG Lihao,LIU Xiangyu,GU Xueping,et al.Review and prospects of frequency security and stability research in new-type power systems[J].Zhejiang Electric Power,2024,43(10):12-26.
• [3]国家能源局.2023年全国电力可靠性年度报告[R].北京：国家能源局，2024.
• [4]翁亮涛，王思远，郑伟业，等.基于改进边界收缩算法的灵活性资源聚合模型[J].山东电力技术，2025,52(1):1-11.WENG Liangtao,WANG Siyuan,ZHENG Weiye,et al.Flexibility resource aggregation model based on improved boundary shrinkage algorithm[J]. Shandong Electric Power,2025,52(1):1-11.
• [5]顼佳宇，王方敏，李冰，等.计及灵活性资源传输的配电网灵活性供需协同规划方法[J].电力建设，2025,46(6):76-91.XU Jiayu,WANG Fangmin,LI Bing,et al.Collaborative planning method for flexibility supply and demand in distribution networks considering flexible resource transmission[J].Electric Power Construction,2025,46(6):76-91.
• [6]华昊辰，张洲赫，邹奕群，等.新型电力系统需求侧灵活性资源低碳协同优化研究综述[J].电力建设，2025,46(6):60-75.HUA Haochen,ZHANG Zhouhe,ZOU Yiqu,et al. Review of low-carbon co-optimization research on demandside flexibility resources for new power systems[J].Electric Power Construction,2025,46(6):60-75.
• [7]李洋，尹逊虎，张思，等.考虑多元发电资源灵活性的电力系统紧急调峰调度方法[J].浙江电力，2023,42(8):37-45.LI Yang,YIN Xunhu,ZHANG Si,et al.Emergency peak shaving dispatching method for power system considering flexibility of multiple power generation resources[J].Zhejiang Electric Power,2023,42(8):37-45.
• [8]傅铮，王峰，王若宇，等.基于时序生产模拟的需求侧响应促进新能源消纳量化分析[J].浙江电力，2024,43(9):39-48.FU Zheng,WANG Feng,WANG Ruoyu,et al.Quantitative analysis of renewable energy consumption promoted by demand-side response based on time-series production simulation[J].Zhejiang Electric Power,2024,43(9):39-48.
• [9]彭钢，寇启龙，方涛，等.考虑新能源消纳率的主动配电网储能优化配置策略[J].浙江电力，2025,44(1):84-94.PENG Gang,KOU Qilong,FANG Tao,et al.An optimal strategy for energy storage allocation in active distribution networks considering new energy consumption rates[J].Zhejiang Electric Power,2025,44(1):84-94.
• [10]袁铁江，张文达.新型电力系统源-储-荷协同规划研究综述[J/OL].中国电机工程学报，2024:1-20.(2024-12-27)[2025-05-12].https：//link.cnki.net/doi/10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.240612.YUAN Tiejiang,ZHANG Wenda. A review of research on source-storage-load coordinated planning for new power system[J/OL].Proceedings of the CSEE,2024:1-20.(2024-12-27)[2025-05-12].https：//link.cnki.net/doi/10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.240612.
• [11]LI J H,YU Z B,MU G,et al.An assessment methodology for the flexibility capacity of new power system based on two-stage robust optimization[J].Applied Energy,2024,376:124291.
• [12]许雨玲，王磊，江伟建，等.考虑源荷互动的微电网容量配置双层优化模型[J].浙江电力，2024,43(4):29-39.XU Yuling,WANG Lei,JIANG Weijian,et al. A duallayer optimization model for capacity configuration in microgrids considering source-load interactions[J]. Zhejiang Electric Power,2024,43(4):29-39.
• [13]GHARIBVAND H,GHAREHPETIAN G B,ANVARIMOGHADDAM A. A survey on microgrid flexibility resources,evaluation metrics and energy storage effects[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2024,201:114632.
• [14]唐琦雯，徐文欣，章枫，等.适应水电参与的灵活性爬坡产品交易机制[J].浙江电力，2022,41(8):17-24.TANG Qiwen,XU Wenxin,ZHANG Feng,et al.A transaction mechanism for flexible ramping products with the participation of hydropower[J].Zhejiang Electric Power,2022,41(8):17-24.
• [15]刘海鹏，杨晓静，陆涛，等.考虑分布式新能源的电网运行风险评估指标体系构建方法[J].浙江电力，2024,43(12):1-14.LIU Haipeng,YANG Xiaojing,LU Tao,et al. A method for constructing a risk assessment indicator system for grid operation considering distributed new energy sources[J].Zhejiang Electric Power,2024,43(12):1-14.
• [16]HOU H,TANG J Y,ZHANG Z W,et al.Resilience enhancement of distribution network under typhoon disaster based on two-stage stochastic programming[J]. Applied Energy,2023,338:120892.
• [17]姜海洋，杜尔顺，马佳豪，等.考虑长周期供需不平衡风险的新型电力系统规划方法[J].中国电机工程学报，2024,44(15):5845-5858.JIANG Haiyang,DU Ershun,MA Jiahao,et al.Power system optimal planning method considering long-term imbalance risk[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE,2024,44(15):5845-5858.
• [18]陈昕奕，柳璐，张啸虎，等.典型与极端场景下考虑煤电机组转型的灵活性资源协同规划[J/OL].中国电机工程学报，2025:1-14.(2025-02-21)[2025-05-12]. https：//kns.cnki. net/kcms/detail/11.2107. TM. 20250221.1252.012.html.CHEN Xinyi,LIU Lu,ZHANG Xiaohu,et al.Flexible resource collaborative planning considering transformation of coal-fired power units in typical and extreme scenarios[J/OL].Proceedings of the CSEE,2025:1-14.(2025-02-21)[2025-05-12]. https：//kns. cnki. net/kcms/detail/11.2107.TM.20250221.1252.012.html.
• [19]阮前途，叶荣.保障极端天气下供需安全的新型电力系统电源规划[J].电力系统自动化，2025,49(4):103-115.RUAN Qiantu,YE Rong. Power source planning of new power system for guaranteeing supply-demand security under extreme weather[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems,2025,49(4):103-115.
• [20]高红均，尚梦琪，贺帅佳，等.保障极端高温事件下负荷可靠供应的楼宇综合能源规划[J].中国电机工程学报，2024,44(19):7636-7648.GAO Hongjun,SHANG Mengqi,HE Shuaijia,et al.Integrated energy planning for buildings to ensure reliable load supply during extreme heat events[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2024,44(19):7636-7648.
• [21]刘刚，张芳影，李晓峰，等.提升新能源场站调节能力的储能优化配置策略[J].电力电容器与无功补偿，2025,46(2):62-72.LIU Gang,ZHANG Fangying,LI Xiaofeng,et al.Energy storage optimization configuration strategy for enhancing regulation capacity of new energy stations[J].Power Capacitor&Reactive Power Compensation,2025,46(2):62-72.
• [22]何荣凯，李万信，唐华，等.考虑灵活资源参与的多能耦合系统风险响应与调控[J].山东电力技术，2025,52(11):13-32.HE Rongkai,LI Wanxin,TANG Hua,et al.Risk response and regulation of multi-energy coupling systems considering flexible resources participation[J]. Shandong Electric Power,2025,52(11):13-32.
• [23]陈浩，张文朝，黄志光，等.考虑极端天气的先验知识引导风/光短期出力场景生成方法研究[J].智慧电力，2025,53(3):44-52.CHEN Hao,ZHANG Wenchao,HUANG Zhiguang,et al.research on prior knowledge-guided short-term wind/photovoltaic output scenario generation method considering extreme weather[J].Smart Power,2025,53(3):44-52.
• [24]方磊，孙光亮，郭啸，等.基于混合海鸥优化算法的主动配电网双层规划[J].山东电力技术，2025,52(2):78-87.FANG Lei,SUN Guangliang,GUO Xiao,et al. Active distribution network bi-level planning based on hybrid seagull optimization algorithm[J]. Shandong Electric Power,2025,52(2):78-87.
• [25]朱海军，鞠立伟，杨慧，等.计及不确定性的新型灵活性资源两阶段鲁棒配置优化模型[J].电力建设，2024,45(7):1-11.ZHU Haijun,JU Liwei,YANG Hui,et al. Optimal twostage robust configuration model and algorithm of new flexibility resources considering uncertainty[J]. Electric Power Construction,2024,45(7):1-11.
• [26]许静，孔德政，邢朝健，等.面向极端天气的发电设备自适应鲁棒防御策略[J].智慧电力，2025,53(9):74-80.XU Jing,KONG Dezheng,XING Chaojian,et al.Adaptive robust defense strategies for power generation equipment against extreme weather conditions[J]. Smart Power,2025,53(9):74-80.
• [27]鞠立伟，吕硕硕，李鹏.新型电力系统需求侧灵活性资源时空协同优化与动态均衡机制研究综述[J].电力建设，2024,45(9):142-163.JU Liwei,LYU Shuoshuo,LI Peng. Review of novel demand-side flexibility resource spatio-temporal cooptimization and dynamic equilibrium mechanism of power systems[J]. Electric Power Construction,2024,45(9):142-163.
• [28]徐慧慧，赵宇洋，田云飞，等.考虑供应侧灵活响应与需求响应不确定性的综合能源系统优化调度[J].浙江电力，2025,44(3):53-61.XU Huihui,ZHAO Yuyang,TIAN Yunfei,et al.Optimal scheduling of integrated energy system considering supplyside flexible response and demand response uncertainty[J].Zhejiang Electric Power,2025,44(3):53-61.
• [29]章姝俊，陆海清，陈佳玺，等.基于多因素相关性分析的气温敏感负荷预测[J].浙江电力，2023,42(9):27-35.ZHANG Shujun,LU Haiqing,CHEN Jiaxi,et al. Research on prediction of temperature-sensitive loads based on multi-factor correlation analysis[J]. Zhejiang Electric Power,2023,42(9):27-35.
• [30]王振国，康丽莉，李特，等.浙江沿海地区台风灾害风险区域划分研究[J].浙江电力，2024,43(3):28-37.WANG Zhenguo,KANG Lili,LI Te,et al.A study on typhoon disaster risk zoning in Zhejiang coastal areas[J].Zhejiang Electric Power,2024,43(3):28-37.
• [31]朱永清，林佳宁，李庆生，等.冰灾下考虑多重不确定性的负荷聚合商市场力评估方法[J].浙江电力，2024,43(1):64-71.ZHU Yongqing,LIN Jianing,LI Qingsheng,et al.A market power assessment method for load aggregators considering multiple uncertainties under ice disasters[J]. Zhejiang Electric Power,2024,43(1):64-71.
• [32]国家发展改革委.电力需求侧管理办法（2023年版）[EB/OL].(2023-09-15)[2025-05-28]. https：//www. gov. cn/zhengce/zhengceku/202310/content_6907311.htm.
• [33]廖孟柯，张明扬，袁铁江，等.电解水制氢-储氢-输氢多环节联合规划[J/OL].中国电机工程学报，2025:1-15.(2025-03-10)[2025-06-10]. https：//kns. cnki. net/kcms/detail/11.2107.tm.20250310.1426.002.html.LIAO Mengke,ZHANG Mingyang,YUAN Tiejiang,et al.Multi-link joint planning of water electrolysis hydrogen production-hydrogen storage-hydrogen transmission[J/OL].Proceedings of the CSEE,2025:1-15.(2025-03-10)[2025-06-10].https：//kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/11.2107.tm.20250310.1426.002.html.
• [34]侯婷婷，方仍存，王治华，等.提升源荷多元调峰主动性的优化调度及费用补偿分摊机制[J].高电压技术，2024,50(12):5529-5538.HOU Tingting,FANG Rengcun,WANG Zhihua,et al.Optimal scheduling and compensation cost allocation mechanism to enhance the initiative of source-load multielement peak regulation[J]. High Voltage Engineering,2024,50(12):5529-5538.
• [35]董申，周步祥，臧天磊，等.考虑快速响应应急资源的配电信息物理系统灾后协同恢复方法[J/OL].中国电机工程学报，2024:1-15.(2024-12-26)[2025-06-10]. https：//link.cnki.net/doi/10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.241688.DONG Shen,ZHOU Buxiang,ZANG Tianlei,et al.Collaborative recovery method of distribution cyber-physical systems after disaster considering rapid response to emergency resources[J/OL].Proceedings of the CSEE,2024:1-15.(2024-12-26)[2025-06-10]. https：//link. cnki. net/doi/10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.241688.
• [36]牛奎烨，刘金波，汤奕，等.计及极端气象事件的年度系统运行场景生成方法[J].电网技术，2024,48(10):3992-4006.NIU Kuiye,LIU Jinbo,TANG Yi,et al.A method for generating annual system operating scenarios considering extreme meteorological events[J]. Power System Technology,2024,48(10):3992-4006.
• [37]郑林烽，缪源诚，滕晓毕，等.考虑配储的火电机组灵活性改造模型与方法[J].中国电机工程学报，2025,45(4):1501-1513.ZHENG Linfeng,MIAO Yuancheng,TENG Xiaobi,et al.Model and method for flexible retrofit of thermal power units considering energy storage configuration[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2025,45(4):1501-1513.