高强,郭云鹏,朱超,段浩,杨文晖,叶承晋
GAO Qiang,GUO Yunpeng,ZHU Chao,DUAN Hao,YANG Wenhui,YE Chengjin

• 1:国网浙江省电力有限公司
• 2:国网浙江省电力有限公司经济技术研究院
• 3:国网浙江省电力有限公司温州供电公司
• 4:浙江大学电气工程学院

摘要(Abstract)：

以风电为代表的大规模新能源机组不断接入电网，电力系统安全特性发生显著变化，台风影响下电力系统的灾变特点也进一步复杂化。为此，提出考虑台风天气影响的风机接入电力系统风险评估方法。首先，构建了台风风场模型，量化台风的致灾因子，结合台风风速建立风电机组和输电线路的停运概率模型以及风机出力不确定性模型，用以表征其在台风影响下的运行风险。然后，构建了基于交流潮流的风险评估模型，考虑风机因电压越限引起的脱网事件，采用蒙特卡洛模拟法计算系统风险指标，以反映台风天气对风机接入电力系统运行的定量影响。最后，基于改进的IEEE 30节点测试算例验证了所提模型的有效性。
With the large-scale integration of renewable energy units, represented by wind turbines, the security characteristics of power systems have undergone significant changes, and the disaster mechanisms of power systems under typhoon impacts have become increasingly complex. To address this issue, a risk assessment method for power systems with wind turbine integration considering typhoon impacts is proposed. First, a typhoon wind field model is established to quantify typhoon hazard factors. Based on typhoon speed, outage probability models for wind turbines and transmission lines, as well as an uncertainty model for wind turbine power output, are developed to characterize their operational risks under typhoon conditions. Then, a risk assessment model based on AC power flow is constructed, in which wind turbine disconnection events caused by voltage limit violations are considered. The Monte Carlo method is employed to calculate system risk indices, thereby quantitatively reflecting the impact of typhoon weather on the operation of power systems with wind turbine integration. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified through case studies based on a modified IEEE 30-bus test system.

关键词(KeyWords)： 台风;新能源电力系统;电力系统风险;风电
typhoon;renewable energy power system;power system risk;wind power

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金（52477131）;; 国网浙江省电力有限公司科技项目（5211JY240003）

作者(Author): 高强,郭云鹏,朱超,段浩,杨文晖,叶承晋
GAO Qiang,GUO Yunpeng,ZHU Chao,DUAN Hao,YANG Wenhui,YE Chengjin

DOI: 10.19585/j.zjdl.202604003

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