廖培,商佳宜,何洁
LIAO Pei,SHANG Jiayi,HE Jie

• 1:国网浙江省电力公司杭州供电公司
• 2:国网浙江省电力公司

摘要(Abstract)：

为提高短期负荷预测的精度,通过分析不同气象因子对负荷的影响,发现不同气象因子影响不同性质的负荷。针对这一情况,根据不同气象因子对地区总负荷构成进行解析,找出各气象因子与负荷构成的对应关系,并通过历史数据挖掘及分析,构建相应的模型,提出了对应的短期负荷预测方法。通过实际应用表明,基于负荷解析及分类气象因子的负荷预测模型及预测方法具有较好的精度和可应用性。
In order to improve forecast accuracy of short-term load, it is concluded by analyzing impact of meteorological factors on load that different meteorological factors have impact on loads with different natures.Therefore, the regional total load constitution is analyzed depending on the different meteorological factors to find the correspondence between meteorological factor and power load constitution; through historical date mining and analysis, the load model is built and the corresponding short-term load forecast method is established. The practical application shows that the load forecast model and forecast method based on load decomposition and meteorological factors are highly accurate and applicable.

关键词(KeyWords)： 负荷解析;气象因子;短期负荷;预测
load decomposition;meteorological factor;short-term load;forecast

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Author): 廖培,商佳宜,何洁
LIAO Pei,SHANG Jiayi,HE Jie

DOI: 10.19585/j.zjdl.2015.11.009

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