林顺富,应子涵,谭津,翟子谦
LIN Shunfu,YING Zihan,TAN Jin,ZHAI Ziqian

• 1:上海电力大学电气工程学院
• 2:国网上海市北供电公司

摘要(Abstract)：

针对能量耦合设备和寒潮影响下电力线路的故障风险，提出考虑寒潮影响下系统供能风险的综合能源系统优化规划方法。首先，建立考虑设备变载运行效率的能量耦合设备故障概率模型和寒潮影响下的线路故障概率模型。其次，以损失负荷水平建立故障严重度模型，并提出同时考虑故障概率和故障严重度的系统供能风险模型。最后，利用NSGA-Ⅱ（二代非支配排序遗传算法）求解考虑供能风险的最优经济性规划方案，并获得规划方案关于成本和风险的偏好函数。算例分析结果表明，考虑故障严重度的风险模型在增加3.98%总成本的同时降低16.74%的供能风险，且投资者可以根据投资偏好选择更合适的方案。
To address the fault risks of energy coupling devices and power transmission lines under cold wave conditions, this paper proposes an optimal planning method for integrated energy systems(IES) that explictly considers energy supply risks. First, a failure probability model for energy coupling devices is developed, incorporating variable-load operation efficiency. A line failure probability is established, accounting for the impacts of cold waves. Subsequently, a failure severity model is constructed based on load loss levels. An integrated energy supply risk model is propsoed, simultaneously considering failure probability and failure severity. The non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm Ⅱ(NSGA-Ⅱ) is employed to sovle the optimal economic planning model. A preference function is derived to quantify costs and risks of the planning method. Results of the case study show that the proposed model increases total cost by 3.98% but reduces energy supply risk by 16.74%. Investors can select appropriate schemes based on their investment preferences.

关键词(KeyWords)： 综合能源系统;多目标规划;寒潮灾害;供能风险;变载运行效率
IES;multi-objective planning;cold wave disaster;energy supply risk;variable-load operation efficiency

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家电网公司总部科技项目（108-202299266A-1-0-ZB）

作者(Author): 林顺富,应子涵,谭津,翟子谦
LIN Shunfu,YING Zihan,TAN Jin,ZHAI Ziqian

DOI: 10.19585/j.zjdl.202511002

参考文献(References)：

• [1]余晓丹，徐宪东，陈硕翼，等.综合能源系统与能源互联网简述[J].电工技术学报，2016,31(1):1-13.YU Xiaodan,XU Xiandong,CHEN Shuoyi,et al.A brief review to integrated energy system and energy Internet[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2016,31(1):1-13.
• [2]张冠宇，付炜，陈晨，等.面向电-气-热综合能源系统的恢复力研究现状与展望[J].智慧电力，2023,51(1):69-77.ZHANG Guanyu,FU Wei,CHEN Chen,et al.Status and prospects of resilience research for electric-gas-thermal integrated energy system[J]. Smart Power,2023,51(1):69-77.
• [3]周专，苗帅，边家瑜，等.基于系统动力学氢需求预测与综合能源系统优化配置研究[J].电力电容器与无功补偿，2023,44(6):12-22.ZHOU Zhuan,MIAO Shuai,BIAN Jiayu,et al.Hydrogen demand prediction based on system dynamics and research on optimal configuration of integrated energy system[J].Power Capacitor&Reactive Power Compensation,2023,44(6):12-22.
• [4]张浩，陆海，罗恩博，等.考虑资源灵活性的多区域综合能源系统协同调度[J].电网与清洁能源，2024,51(9):148-154.ZHANG Hao,LU Hai ,LUO Enbo,et al. Coordinated scheduling of multi-region integrated energy systems considering resource flexibility[J]. Power System and Clean Energy,2024(9):148-154.
• [5]袁红斌，易晓东.计及碳捕集和需求响应的综合能源系统低碳经济调度策略[J].电力需求侧管理，2024,26(1):86-92.YUAN Hongbin,YI Xiaodong. A low carbon economic dispatch strategy for integrated energy systems with carbon capture and demand response[J].Power Demand Side Management,2024(1):86-92.
• [6]刘涛，王瑞琪，刘松，等.考虑碳-绿证交易与需求响应的综合能源系统合作博弈调度[J].电力需求侧管理，2024,26(6):8-15.LIU Tao,WANG Ruiqi,LIU Song,et al. Collaborative game scheduling of integrated energy systems considering carbon-green certificate trading and demand responsePower Demand Side Management,2024(6):8-15.
• [7] NIK V M,PERERA A T D,CHEN D L.Towards climate resilient urban energy systems:a review[J].National Science Review,2021,8(3):159-176.
• [8]张亚超，易杨，胡志鹏，等.基于分布鲁棒优化的电-气综合能源系统弹性提升策略[J].电力系统自动化，2021,45(13):76-84.ZHANG Yachao,YI Yang,HU Zhipeng,et al.Resilience enhancement strategy of electricity-gas integrated energy system based on distributionally robust optimization[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2021,45(13):76-84.
• [9]郇嘉嘉，隋宇，张小辉.综合能源系统级联失效及故障连锁反应分析方法[J].电力建设，2019,40(8):84-92.HUAN Jiajia,SUI Yu,ZHANG Xiaohui.Analysis method for cascade failure and fault chain reaction of integrated energy system[J]. Electric Power Construction,2019,40(8):84-92.
• [10]杜蕙，林涛，李轻言，等.电力-天然气互联系统协同安全机制：现状，问题与挑战[J].电网技术，2022,46(10):3764-3777.DU Hui,LIN Tao,LI Qingyan,et al.Coordinated security mechanism for electric-gas interconnect systems:status,problems,and challenges[J].Power System Technology,2022,46(10):3764-3777.
• [11]张苏涵，顾伟，俞睿智，等.综合能源系统建模与仿真：综述、思考与展望[J].电力系统自动化，2024,48(17):1-21.ZHANG Suhan,GU Wei,YU Ruizhi,et al.Modeling and simulation of integrated energy system:review,reflection and prospects[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2024,48(17):1-21.
• [12]郑焕坤，吕婷婷，孙耀斌，等.考虑信息设备故障的综合能源信息物理系统可靠性分析[J].高电压技术，2022,48(8):3078-3087.ZHENG Huankun,LüTingting,SUN Yaobin,et al.Reliability analysis of integrated energy cyber physical system considering information equipment failure[J]. High Voltage Engineering,2022,48(8):3078-3087.
• [13]陆杨，李华强，刘洋，等.考虑供能设备故障风险的电-气-热综合能源系统优化运行[J].电力系统保护与控制，2022,50(9):34-44.LU Yang,LI Huaqiang,LIU Yang,et al.Optimal operation of electricity-gas-heat integrated energy system considering the risk of energy supply equipment failure[J].Power System Protection and Control,2022,50(9):34-44.
• [14]闻天润，彭道刚，赵慧荣，等.考虑设备风险和风光不确定性的园区综合能源随机优化运行[J].科学技术与工程，2023,23(32):13861-13871.WEN Tianrun,PENG Daogang,ZHAO Huirong,et al.Stochastic optimal operation of park-level integrated energy considering equipment risk and uncertainty of wind and solar[J].Science,Technology and Engineering,2023,23(32):13861-13871.
• [15] WANG Z,HAO Y,ZHAO G,et al. Day-ahead optimal dispatch method of integrated electric-heat-cool-gas energy system based on N-1 safety criterion[J].Energy and Buildings,2024,323:114800.
• [16]侯俊贤，吴军，董飞飞，等.考虑综合故障率的线路分段差异化规划方法[J].中国电机工程学报，2015,35(21):5437-5445.HOU Junxian,WU Jun,DONG Feifei,et al.A method of line segment differentiation planning considering comprehensive fault rate[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2015,35(21):5437-5445.
• [17]许守东，王建，李铭益，等.极端气象灾害下考虑MESS主动调控的配电网故障恢复策略[J].电力系统保护与控制，2024,52(12):45-57.XU Shoudong,WANG Jian,LI Mingyi,et al.Distribution network fault recovery strategy considering active control of an MESS in extreme weather[J].Power System Protection and Control,2024,52(12):45-57.
• [18] WANG Z,WANG D,REN Z,et al.Modeling and simulation of fault propagation of combined heat and electricity energy systems under extreme cold disaster based on Markov process[J].Energy Reports,2022,8:619-626.
• [19]张译心，狄晨烨，赵男，等.面向复合极端天气的高新能源渗透率电网风险评估技术[J].电力建设，2024,45(10):34-46.ZHANG Yixin,DI Chenye,ZHAO Nan,et al.Risk assessment techniques for grids with high penetration of new energy under extreme weather conditions[J].Electric Power Construction,2024,45(10):34-46.
• [20]李雪，张涵帅，姜涛，等.应对极端冰灾的电力系统多阶段韧性提升策略[J].电力自动化设备，2024,44(7):69-77.LI Xue,ZHANG Hanshuai,JIANG Tao,et al.Multi-stage resilience enhancement strategy for power system against extreme ice disaster[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2024,44(7):69-77.
• [21]张勇军，许亮，吴成文.计及多因素的电网冰灾风险评估模型研究[J].电力系统保护与控制，2012,40(15):12-17.ZHANG Yongjun,XU Liang,WU Chengwen. Research on ice disaster risk evaluation model of power system considering multi-factors[J]. Power System Protection and Control,2012,40(15):12-17.
• [22] ZHANG X P,SHAHIDEHPOUR M,ALABDULWAHAB A S,et al.Security-constrained co-optimization planning of electricity and natural gas transportation infrastructures[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2015,30(6):2984-2993.
• [23] HE C,WU L,LIU T Q,et al. Robust co-optimization planning of interdependent electricity and natural gas systems with a joint N-1 and probabilistic reliability criterion[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2018,33(2):2140-2154.
• [24]边晓燕，史越奇，裴传逊，等.计及经济性和可靠性因素的区域综合能源系统双层协同优化配置[J].电工技术学报，2021,36(21):4529-4543.BIAN Xiaoyan,SHI Yueqi,PEI Chuanxun,et al.Bi-level collaborative configuration optimization of integrated community energy system considering economy and reliability[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2021,36(21):4529-4543.
• [25]杨承，王平，刘换新，等.分布式燃气-蒸汽联合循环供能系统热经济性分析[J].中国电机工程学报，2019,39(18):5424-5432.YANG Cheng,WANG Ping,LIU Huanxin,et al.Thermoeconomic analysis on gas-steam combined cycle-based distributed energy supply system[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE,2019,39(18):5424-5432.
• [26]林毓军，苗世洪，尹斌鑫，等.基于改进协同演化算法的综合能源系统经济性与可靠性优化规划[J].电力自动化设备，2021,41(9):173-181.LIN Yujun,MIAO Shihong,YIN Binxin,et al. Optimal planning for economy and reliability of integrated energy system based on improved co-evolution algorithm[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2021,41(9):173-181.
• [27]王强钢，吴雪翚，杨龙杰，等.考虑设备变工况特性和灵活性供需匹配的园区综合能源系统优化配置模型[J].电力自动化设备，2023,43(3):20-28.WANG Qianggang,WU Xuehui,YANG Longjie,et al.Optimal allocation model of community integrated energy system considering off-design performance of device and flexible supply-demand matching[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2023,43(3):20-28.
• [28]邓杰，姜飞，王文烨，等.考虑动态能效模型的园区综合能源系统梯级优化运行[J].电网技术，2022,46(3):1027-1039.DENG Jie,JIANG Fei,WANG Wenye,et al. Study on cascade optimization operation of park-level integrated energy system considering dynamic energy efficiency model[J].Power System Technology,2022,46(3):1027-1039.
• [29]陈浩，孙锘祾，吴桂联，等.考虑配电系统灾后响应全过程的开关配置与线路加固方法[J].电力系统及其自动化学报，2024,36(11):100-108.CHEN Hao,SUN Nuoling,WU Guilian,et al.Switch allocation and line hardening method considering whole process of post disaster response of distribution system[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2024,36(11):100-108.