基于灰色预测理论的区域电量概率预测方法及其应用Probability Forecasting Method of Regional Electricity Quantity Based on Grey Forecasting Theory and Its Application
钟全辉,张以全,肖少华,张利敏,金国忠
ZHONG Quanhui,ZHANG Yiquan,XIAO Shaohua,ZHANG Limin,JIN Guozhong
摘要(Abstract)：
针对区域电量的预测问题,提出一种基于灰色预测理论的区域电量概率预测方法。详细分析并介绍区域电量预测的特点,为电量预测可行性及方法选择等提供理论基础;建立基于灰色预测理论的区域电量概率预测模型,该模型以历史电量数据为输入变量,以未来某年区域电量为输出变量,采用灰色预测理论和概率理论进行求解。以某区局实际区域电量数据进行模型预测应用,验证了该方法的实用性和可推广性。
For the regional electricity quantity forecasting, this paper puts forward a method of regional electricity quantity probability forecasting based on the grey forecasting theory. Firstly, this paper analyzes and introduces the characteristics of regional electricity quantity forecasting, which provides theoretical basis for the forecasting; besides, based on the grey forecasting theory, the model of regional electricity quantity probability forecasting is established. The model takes the historical data as the input variable and regional electricity quantity as the output variable. The grey forecasting theory and probability theory are used for solution. Finally, the model is used for electricity quality forecasting in a district-level power supply bureau to verify practicability and popularization of the model.
关键词(KeyWords)：
区域电量;灰色预测理论;概率预测
regional electricity quantity;grey forecasting theory;probability forecasting
基金项目(Foundation):
作者(Author):
钟全辉,张以全,肖少华,张利敏,金国忠
ZHONG Quanhui,ZHANG Yiquan,XIAO Shaohua,ZHANG Limin,JIN Guozhong
DOI: 10.19585/j.zjdl.201801004
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