徐非非,冯华,覃洪培,文洪君,解志良,叶尚兴,邱逸
XU Feifei,FENG Hua,QIN Hongpei,WEN Hongjun,XIE Zhiliang,YE Shangxing,QIU Yi

• 1:国网浙江省电力有限公司丽水供电公司
• 2:浙江大学电气工程学院

摘要(Abstract)：

分布式光伏大规模接入对配电网安全稳定运行产生较大影响，分布式光伏承载能力分析与评估可有效指导分布式光伏的合理规划与利用。为此，提出一种配电网分布式光伏承载能力区间分析方法，以计算不确定性下的配电网分布式光伏最大接入容量。首先，结合历史数据，采用非参数核密度估计方法量化分布式光伏出力不确定性，并基于牛顿法计算分布式光伏出力区间。其次，考虑系统安全运行约束和分布式光伏出力不确定性，构建配电网分布式光伏承载能力区间分析模型，并基于区间分析理论将其分解为乐观子模型和悲观子模型。然后，为了降低模型求解难度，通过等价变换将悲观子模型进行简化，并分别求解两个子模型以获得区间解。最后，在改进15节点配电系统和浙江丽水某实际配电网进行仿真分析，结果验证了所提方法的有效性和实用性。
The large-scale integration of distributed photovoltaics(DPVs) has a profound impact on the secure and stable operation of distribution networks. Analysis and assessment on DPV hosting capacity can effectively assist in its rational planning and utilization. To this end, an method for analyzing the DPV hosting capacity interval is proposed to calculate the maximum DPV integration capacity in distribution networks under uncertainties. Firstly, the DPV output uncertainties are quantified by means of nonparametric kernel density estimation based on the historical data, and the DPV output interval is calculated by Newton-Raphson method. Secondly, a DPV hosting capacity interval analysis model for distribution networks considering safe operation constraints is established, which is then decomposed into an optimistic submodel and a pessimistic submodel based on interval analysis theory. Then, to reduce the difficulty of model solution, the pessimistic sub-model is simplified by the equivalence transformation, and the two sub-models are solved separately to obtain the interval solution. Finally, simulation analysis is carried out in the improved 15-node distribution system and a distribution network in Lishui, Zhejiang Province. The results verify the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed method.

关键词(KeyWords)： 配电网;分布式光伏;承载能力分析;不确定性分析;区间优化
distribution network;DPV;hosting capacity analysis;uncertainty analysis;interval optimization

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国网浙江省电力有限公司科技项目（5211LS21N001）

作者(Author): 徐非非,冯华,覃洪培,文洪君,解志良,叶尚兴,邱逸
XU Feifei,FENG Hua,QIN Hongpei,WEN Hongjun,XIE Zhiliang,YE Shangxing,QIU Yi

DOI: 10.19585/j.zjdl.202311011

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