基于分形理论的电力系统负荷特性研究Research on Characteristic of Power Load Based on Fractal Theory
沈晔华,马波,刘峰,常荣明
摘要(Abstract)：
电力系统负荷预测是电力系统发电计划的重要组成部分,也是电力系统经济运行的基础。在当前电力发展迅速和供应紧张的情况下,合理地进行负荷预测对于电力系统规划和运行极其重要。通过分析电力系统负荷曲线,得出电力系统负荷具有统计的自相似性,从而证明了分形理论应用于负荷预测的可行性和合理性,为将分形理论应用于电力系统负荷预测提供了理论依据。
Power load forecasting plays an import role in power system generation planning, which is also the base of power system economical operation. It is essential for us to forecast power loads accurately in the situation of rapid power loads development and shortage of power supply nowadays. In this paper, power loads curve is investigated and it is found that the power loads have the quality of statistic self-similar, hence the feasibility and rationality of applying fractal theory is proved.
关键词(KeyWords)：
电力系统;负荷预测;分形;迭代函数系统(IFS)
power system; power load forecasting; fractal; IFS
基金项目(Foundation):
作者(Author):
沈晔华,马波,刘峰,常荣明
DOI: 10.19585/j.zjdl.2007.02.004