基于大客户和地方电厂数据管理预测平台的负荷还原预测方法研究Research of Load Reduction Forecasting Method Based on Data Management and Forecasting Platform of Large-Scale Consumer and Regional Power Plants
王栋,邵常宁,费建平,冯刚,方志辉
WANG Dong,SHAO Changning,Fei Jianping,FENG Gang,FANG Zhihui
摘要(Abstract)：
短期负荷预测对于保证电力系统的可靠和经济运行具有重要意义,随着电网结构的复杂化和精益化管理要求的提高,需求侧和供应侧的管理对负荷预测越来越重要。为此,提出了一种需求侧、供应侧管理与预测技术相结合的办法,通过构建大客户与地方电厂的数据管理平台获得可靠的大客户用电计划,并对全网负荷中剥离出的纯负荷进行外推预测,再将分类预测的结果合并,从而达到提高预测效果的目的。最后以浙江舟山电网为算例验证了所提思路的可行性。
Short-term load forecasting(STLF) is essential to ensure reliable and economical running of the power system. As the structure of power grid is becoming more complex and requirement of refined administration is stricter, both demand-tside and supply-tside administration are increasingly significant to STLF. This paper proposes a measure that combines demand-tside and supply-tside administration with forecasting technology. Through establishment of data management platform of large-tscale consumers and local power plants,reliable electricity consumption plan of large-tscale consumers is obtained and extrapolative forecast on pure load stripped from entire load is implemented; in addition, the pure load forecasting result is merged into classification forecasting result to promote STLF. Finally, Zhoushan power grid is taken as an example to verify the practicability of the method.
关键词(KeyWords)：
短期负荷预测;数据管理平台;纯负荷;负荷还原预测
STLF;data management platform;pure load;load reduction forecasting
基金项目(Foundation):
作者(Author):
王栋,邵常宁,费建平,冯刚,方志辉
WANG Dong,SHAO Changning,Fei Jianping,FENG Gang,FANG Zhihui
DOI: 10.19585/j.zjdl.2015.12.003