景伟强,毛燕萍,邢聪聪,魏骁雄,徐家宁
JING Weiqiang,MAO Yanping,XING Congcong,WEI Xiaoxiong,XU Jianing

• 1:国网浙江省电力公司客户服务中心
• 2:杭州远传通信技术有限公司

摘要(Abstract)：

针对电力呼叫中心的话务量受到天气影响较为显著的情况,综合考虑了当地气温、周规律、月规律、法定节假日、同期增长趋势等因素对话务量的影响,提出一种温度相关预测模型,数值试验证明这一模型应用于电力行业呼叫中心话务预测效果良好。
Telephone traffic in electric power center depends very much on weather conditions. The paper considers impact of local temperature, weekly rules, monthly rules, statutory holidays and growth trend at the same period on telephone traffic; it proposes a temperature-based forecasting model. It is proved by numerical test that the application of the model in call center of electric power industry can achieve favorable effect.

关键词(KeyWords)： 话务预测;电力行业;呼叫中心;温度相关预测模型
traffic forecasting;electric power industry;call center;temperature-based forecasting model

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Author): 景伟强,毛燕萍,邢聪聪,魏骁雄,徐家宁
JING Weiqiang,MAO Yanping,XING Congcong,WEI Xiaoxiong,XU Jianing

DOI: 10.19585/j.zjdl.2015.01.015

参考文献(References)：

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• [2]艾勇.电力呼叫中心话务量的指数平滑预测方法[J].中南民族大学学报(自然科学版),2012(9):81-84.
• [3]雷绍兰,孙才新,周湶,等.电力短期负荷的多变量序列线性回归预测方法研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2006(2):25-29.