李晓梅 ,周晖 ,李冬梅

• 1:北京交通大学电气工程学院
• 2:北京供电局 北京100044
• 3:北京100031

摘要(Abstract)：

文章根据北京地区年最大负荷发生的特点 ,以1997～2002年年最大负荷数据为基础 ,采用包络灰预测的方法 ,建立了北京市年最大负荷的包络灰预测模型。通过与其它预测模型的比较 ,发现所建的包络灰预测模型更具合理性和可行性 ,可以满足现场的实际需要 ,这为电力部门制定电力系统的运营计划 ,如安排发电机组的启停、确定系统运行的备用容量等工作 ,提供了较充分的参考依据
With the rapid growth of yearly peak loads in Beijing, the issue of prediction for yearly peak load has already caught great attention of electric utility. Based on the data of yearly peak load between 1997 and 2002. In this paper, adopting Grey wrapping prediction method, Grey wrapping predictions model for yearly peak load has been built according to the occurring characteristic of yearly peak load in Beijing. In comparison with other model, we find that the Grey wrapping predictions model which can meet the practical requirement of electric utility is more reasonable and feasible. Thereby, the Grey wrapping predictions model for yearly peak load gives electric utility some important references to make power load operation schedules, such as arranging properly switch or standby planning of generation, transmission and distribution systems.

关键词(KeyWords)： 年负荷预测;灰色系统;区间预测;GM(1,1)模型
yearly peak load; Grey wrapping prediction model; interval predictions; GM(1,1) model

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Author): 李晓梅 ,周晖 ,李冬梅

DOI: 10.19585/j.zjdl.2004.04.001

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