考虑后悔规避的工业园区综合能源系统扩展规划方法An Expansion Plan of the Integrated Energy System in Industrial Park Based on Regret Aversion
潘乐真,周满,赵璞,刘文琳,郑思源
PAN Lezhen,ZHOU Man,ZHAO Pu,LIU Wenlin,ZHENG Siyuan
摘要(Abstract)：
工业园区的能源形式多样且规划的不确定性因素多,针对工业园区能源规划后悔风险大的问题,提出一种考虑后悔规避的综合能源系统扩展规划方法。该方法从最小-最大后悔规避和平均后悔值最低两方面,以规划方案在不同天然气价格波动场景下的建设、运维和环保成本的后悔值为优化目标,通过优化计算得到工业园区能源系统的规划方案,并讨论了天然气价格对工业园区综合能源系统扩展规划的影响。温州工业园区的优化结果表明:与传统的基于期望的规划方法相比,所提规划方法可将最大后悔值减少17.8%,综合后悔值减少9.4%,效果明显。
Due to the mixed energy and planning uncertainty of industrial park, the paper proposes an expansion plan of integrated energy system based on regret aversion considering high regret aversion risk of energy planning in an industrial park. The method, in respect of min-max regret value and the minimum average regret value, optimizes the regret value of the construction, operation and maintenance and environmental protection costs in the expansion plan for IPIES with different natural gas price fluctuations to conclude a planning scheme of the energy system in the industrial park, and discusses the impact of natural gas prices on the expansion plan. The optimization results of Wenzhou Industrial Park show that the proposed method, in contrast to the traditional planning method based on expectation, can reduce the maximum regret value by17.8% and the comprehensive regret value by 9.4%.
关键词(KeyWords)：
综合能源系统;后悔规避;最小-最大后悔值;工业园区;规划方法
integrated energy system;regret aversion;min-max regret value;industrial park;planning method
基金项目(Foundation): 国网浙江省电力有限公司资助项目（5211WZ18007D）
作者(Author):
潘乐真,周满,赵璞,刘文琳,郑思源
PAN Lezhen,ZHOU Man,ZHAO Pu,LIU Wenlin,ZHENG Siyuan
DOI: 10.19585/j.zjdl.202104006
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