赵高帅,罗涛,闫大威,张章,董晓红,靳小龙
ZHAO Gaoshuai,LUO Tao,YAN Dawei,ZHANG Zhang,DONG Xiaohong,JIN Xiaolong

• 1:国网天津市电力公司经济技术研究院
• 2:天津大学智能电网教育部重点实验室

摘要(Abstract)：

当前，配电网网架规划在提高电网可靠性和稳定性方面发挥了关键作用，但往往忽视了源荷出力的相关性，导致弃光率高、配电网网架投资大、线路利用率低等问题。为此，提出一种考虑源荷相关性及不确定性的配电网网架规划方法。首先结合源荷历史数据，考虑光伏和负荷出力的时序自相关性，利用拉丁超立方采样和Cholesky分解法生成源、荷场景集，并计及源荷互相关性，设计源荷联合场景削减方法；其次考虑源荷出力不确定性，确定典型源荷联合场景及其概率；然后构建期望光伏消纳水平最大、期望年投资运行成本最小、线路过载概率期望值最小的配电网网架多目标优化规划模型，并考虑相关约束；采用改进NSGA-II算法求解，生成配电网网架规划方案。最后，讨论帕累托前沿解之间的差异以及不同参数对规划结果的影响，为规划决策者提供备选方案。
At present, distribution network framework planning plays a critical role in enhancing grid reliability and stability. However, the correlation between source and load outputs is often neglected, leading to a high rate of solar power curtailment, significant investment in the distribution network framework, and low line utilization rates. To address these issues, this paper proposes a framework planning method for distribution networks that considers the correlation and uncertainty of source and load output. Firstly, historical data on source and load is analyzed, accounting for the temporal autocorrelation of photovoltaic(PV) and load outputs. Latin hypercube sampling(LHS) and Cholesky decomposition are employed to generate source-load scenario sets. By incorporating their correlation, a load reduction method under these scenarios is designed accordingly. Secondly, the uncertainty in source and load outputs is considered to determine typical source-load scenarios and their probabilities. A multi-objective optimization planning model is developed for the distribution network. This model aims to maximize expected PV consumption, minimize the expected annual investment and operational costs, and minimize the expected value of line overload probability, while considering relevant constraints. The improved NSGA-II algorithm is used to solve this model and generate a distribution network framework planning scheme. Finally, the differences among Pareto frontier solutions and the impact of various parameters on the planning results are discussed, providing planners with alternative options for decision-making.

关键词(KeyWords)： 源荷不确定性;源荷联合场景;光伏消纳水平;线路过载概率;配电网;网架规划
source-load uncertainty;source-load integrated scenario;PV power consumption level;line overload probability;distribution network;network framework planning

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国网天津市电力公司科技项目（经研-研发2023-09）

作者(Author): 赵高帅,罗涛,闫大威,张章,董晓红,靳小龙
ZHAO Gaoshuai,LUO Tao,YAN Dawei,ZHANG Zhang,DONG Xiaohong,JIN Xiaolong

DOI: 10.19585/j.zjdl.202410007

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