基于数据挖掘技术的配电网精准投资策略研究Research on Precision Investment Strategy of Distribution Network Based on Data Mining Technology
黄宏和,吴臻,琚军,章斌,王雪峰,潘永贺,郑辉,赵仲夏
HUANG Honghe,WU Zhen,JU Jun,ZHANG Bin,WANG Xuefeng,PAN Yonghe,ZHENG Hui,ZHAO Zhongxia
摘要(Abstract):
随着电网规模的逐步增大,电力企业的投资规模和实际效益难以量化,在落实配电网精准投资方面缺乏有效的手段。创新运用数据挖掘和分析方法,通过项目投资前的决策评价和项目后的目标实现、电网运营水平的提升和经济效益评估来建立配电网精准投资策略。对试点区块进行小范围验证,结果表明:依据项目投资前评价来统筹需求和投资能力,能够避免或减少配电网项目决策的失误;建立投资后评估模型分析产出效益,能够定位电网在投入产出效率效益方面存在的不足,为未来配电网精准投资提出指导性意见,从而实现电网效益最大化。
With the scale of power grid is gradually increasing, the investment scale and actual benefits of power enterprises cannot be quantified, and there are no effective means for implementing precision investment of power grid. By innovatively use data mining and analysis method, this paper establishes accurate investment strategy of distribution network through pre-investment decision-making evaluation, post-project goal realization, grid operation level improvement and economic benefit evaluation. The result shows that balancing the demand and investment capacity according to the pre-investment evaluation of the project can avoid or reduce the decision-making mistake of the distribution network project; the post-investment evaluation model is established to analyze the output benefit to locate the shortcomings of the grid in the efficiency of input and output and to provide guidance for future accurate investment in distribution network so as to maximize the efficiency of the power grid.
关键词(KeyWords):
数据挖掘技术;电网精准投资;投入产出;熵权法;效益最大化
data mining technology;grid precision investment;input-output;entropy method;efficiency maximization
基金项目(Foundation): 国网浙江省电力有限公司科技项目(5211QZ170003)
作者(Author):
黄宏和,吴臻,琚军,章斌,王雪峰,潘永贺,郑辉,赵仲夏
HUANG Honghe,WU Zhen,JU Jun,ZHANG Bin,WANG Xuefeng,PAN Yonghe,ZHENG Hui,ZHAO Zhongxia
DOI: 10.19585/j.zjdl.201903017
参考文献(References):
- [1]刘胜利,曹阳,冯跃亮.配电网投资效益评价与决策模型研究及应用[J].电力系统保护与控制,2015,43(2):119-125.
- [2]顾韧,陈俊,沈炯,等.配电网投资收益评价模型及应用[J].智能电网,2017,5(5):480-486.
- [3]程茜.配电网投资项目后评价理论与实证研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2010.
- [4]陈旭卯.电网企业投资效益评价体系研究[D].保定:华北电力大学,2010.
- [5]郭晨鋆,徐笑,唐晟,等.基于AHP和熵权法的中压配电网项目投资效益综合评价方法[J].南方能源建设,2016,2(12):9-13.
- [6]马倩,王博,胡蔚,等.配电网建设与改造项目评价及决策优化研究[J].电网与清洁能源,2015,31(3):11-17.
- [7]管强,王文文,关涛,等.配电网项目投资综合效益评价体系研究[J].管理观察,2017,37(4):40-42.
- [8]段成.电网投资效益后评价理论及决策支持系统的研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2012.
- [9]王浩国,徐生才,周洋.绍兴中心城区目标网架建设成效分析[J].工程技术(文摘版),2017,13(4):376-378.
- [10]赵蕾,苟秦晋,潘聃,等.配电网项目评价指标体系[J].电网与清洁能源,2014,30(6):19-23.
- [11]聂宏展,吕盼,乔怡,等.基于熵权法的输电网规划方案模糊综合评价[J].电网技术,2009,52(11):60-64.
- [12]程启月.评测指标权重确定的结构熵权法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2010,30(7):1225-1228.
- [13]洪球,李宏旭.以投入产出为核心的配网投资决策研究[J].华北电力大学学报(社会科学版),2017,22(6):28-36.
- [14]郭耀邦,杨民康.投资决策的投入产出法理论探讨[J].上饶师范学院学报,1990,9(1):14-20.
- [15]廖造壮,陈悦华,蒙环宁.电网建设项目后评价指标体系研究[J].项目管理技术,2012,10(1):29-33.
- 数据挖掘技术
- 电网精准投资
- 投入产出
- 熵权法
- 效益最大化
data mining technology - grid precision investment
- input-output
- entropy method
- efficiency maximization