唐兆杰,张铭宸,詹惠瑜,柏晶晶,罗李子
TANG Zhaojie,ZHANG Mingchen,ZHAN Huiyu,BAI Jingjing,LUO Lizi

• 1:南京理工大学自动化学院
• 2:中国电力科学研究院有限公司
• 3:国网江苏省电力有限公司盐城供电分公司

摘要(Abstract)：

日益复杂的配网架构与不断扩大的新型源荷资源给配电系统带来诸多运行风险与挑战，配电系统中电压越限、支路过载等问题频繁出现，严重影响配电系统安全性与可靠性，亟需提升配电系统风险评估与风险快速应对能力。为实现交直流配电系统风险快速应对，提出了一种交直流配电系统预想风险场景集构建与模式化应对方法。首先，构建了基于不确定潮流计算结果的交直流配电系统运行风险评估体系，梳理了交直流配电系统潜在风险元素，提出了考虑风险场景发生概率与风险场景影响的预想风险场景集构建方法；其次，提出了基于系统预想风险场景集中风险元素的预想风险场景应对策略库生成方法，引入免疫风险理论机制，提出了一种基于模糊评价的配电系统全局运行状态评估的模式化应对控制信号生成方法；最后，提出了基于风险场景相似度的模式化应对策略生成方法，并进行算例分析验证了所提模式化应对方法的有效性。
The increasingly complex architecture of distribution networks and the expanding presence of new types of source-load resources have introduced numerous operational risks and challenges to distribution systems. Problems such as voltage violations and branch overloads occur frequently, severely impacting the security and reliability of the distribution systems. Therefore, enhancing the risk assessment and rapid risk response capabilities of the distribution systems is urgently needed. To enable rapid risk response in AC/DC distribution systems, a method for constructing a prospective risk scenario set and a modeling-based response strategy is proposed. First, a risk assessment framework for AC/DC distribution system operations is developed based on uncertain power flow calculation results, identifying potential risk elements in the systems. A method for constructing a prospective risk scenario set is proposed, taking into account the occurrence probability and impact of risk scenarios. Next, a method for generating a repository of response strategies for prospective risk scenarios is introduced, focusing on the key risk elements in the system's prospective risk scenarios. By incorporating immune risk theory, a modeling-based response strategy for control signal generation is proposed, utilizing fuzzy evaluation to assess the overall operational state of distribution systems. Finally, a method for generating modeling-based response strategies based on the similarity of risk scenarios is presented. Case studies are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed modeling-based response method.

关键词(KeyWords)： 交直流配电系统;不确定潮流;运行风险评估;预想风险场景集;模式化应对方法
AC/DC distribution systems;uncertain power flow;operational risk assessment;prospective risk scenario set;modeling-based response method

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 江苏省碳达峰碳中和科技创新专项（BE2023093-1）;; 国家自然科学基金委员会-国际（地区）合作与交流项目（52061635104）

作者(Author): 唐兆杰,张铭宸,詹惠瑜,柏晶晶,罗李子
TANG Zhaojie,ZHANG Mingchen,ZHAN Huiyu,BAI Jingjing,LUO Lizi

DOI: 10.19585/j.zjdl.202504008

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