董宇航,赵平,卢一菲,孙荣霖,王坦,刘颂凯
DONG Yuhang,ZHAO Ping,LU Yifei,SUN Ronglin,WANG Tan,LIU Songkai

• 1:三峡大学电气与新能源学院
• 2:梯级水电站运行与控制湖北省重点实验室

摘要(Abstract)：

在“双碳”战略目标推动下，微电网运行需兼顾经济性与低碳性。针对光伏出力和负荷预测存在的不确定性以及碳排放时序分布差异较大的特点，构建了碳交易机制下考虑时序约束的微电网两阶段优化调度模型。建立了燃气轮机、储能装置、需求响应及碳交易机制的数字模型以将其纳入统一优化框架。为进一步提升调度的低碳效果，在碳交易机制下提出基于分位数阈值的高碳压力时段识别方法并设计时序约束策略，通过鲁棒优化方法处理光伏出力和负荷预测的不确定性。算例结果表明，该方法在维持总成本基本不变的条件下，可进一步降低系统碳排放；在源荷不确定性增加时，模型仍具备较好的调度稳定性与经济性。
Driven by the “dual-carbon” goals, microgrid operation must simultaneously ensure economic efficiency and low-carbon performance. To address the uncertainties in photovoltaic(PV) generation and load forecasting, as well as the significant time-series variability of carbon emissions, a two-stage optimal dispatch model for microgrids under a carbon trading mechanism with time-series constraints is developed. Digital models of gas turbines, energy storage devices, demand response, and the carbon trading mechanism are established and incorporated into a unified optimization framework. To further enhance carbon reduction performance under the carbon trading mechanism, a high-carbon-pressure period identification method based on a quantile threshold is proposed, and a corresponding time-series constraint strategy is designed. Robust optimization is adopted to handle uncertainties in PV output and load forecasting. Case studies demonstrate that the proposed method can further reduce system carbon emissions while maintaining nearly unchanged total costs. Moreover, when source–load uncertainty increases, the model retains satisfactory dispatch stability and economic performance.

关键词(KeyWords)： 微电网;优化调度;阶梯式碳交易机制;时序约束策略;不确定性;鲁棒优化
microgrid;optimal dispatch;tiered carbon trading mechanism;time-series constraint strategy;uncertainty;robust optimization

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金（52407118）

作者(Author): 董宇航,赵平,卢一菲,孙荣霖,王坦,刘颂凯
DONG Yuhang,ZHAO Ping,LU Yifei,SUN Ronglin,WANG Tan,LIU Songkai

DOI: 10.19585/j.zjdl.202608010

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