文凡,周亚,章浩
WEN Fan,ZHOU Ya,ZHANG Hao(Lin′an Power Supply Bureau

• 1:临安市供电局

摘要(Abstract)：

负荷预测是电网规划的基础,具有很强的科学性。影响负荷动态变化的因素中含有大量不确定性信息,这些信息不能直接用定量的数值表示,使用常规方法进行负荷预测得到的结果往往不尽合理。针对浙江省科技城的区域特点,通过对负荷预测方法适用情况的分析,确定采用空间负荷预测方法进行负荷预测,以排除不确定性因素的影响。预测结果表明,空间负荷预测方法得到的结果是合理的,能满足电网规划的要求。
Load forecasting is the basis of power grid planning,which is highly scientific.Factors influencing the load dynamic changes include a large amount of uncertain information.These information cannot be directly represented by quantitative data,and the result forecasted by conventional methods leaves much to be desired.In consideration of the characteristics of Zhejiang Scientific and Technological City,the spatial load forecasting method is determined by analyzing the applicability of different forecasting methods to eliminate the influence of uncertain factors.The result of the spatial forecasting method is proved to be reasonable and meets the requirements of power grid planning.

关键词(KeyWords)： 浙江省科技城;电网规划;负荷预测;不确定性
Zhejiang Scientific and Technological City;power grid planning;load forecasting;uncertainty

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Author): 文凡,周亚,章浩
WEN Fan,ZHOU Ya,ZHANG Hao(Lin′an Power Supply Bureau

DOI: 10.19585/j.zjdl.2011.10.005

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